Introduction to risk modelling and decision analysis

From ERAC Edu

Time: September 18 - 22, 2006

Place: University of Kuopio, Kuopio (Maps and connections)

Canthia (the building number 1 on the map)

Medistudia (the building number 3 on the map)

Credits: 2.0 credit points

Language: English

Organizers: The course is organized jointly by the Graduate school in Environmental Health and Environmental Risk Assessment Centre (ERAC)

Course leader: Jouni Tuomisto, Docent, National Public Health Institute, Kuopio

Course description: This course is an introductory level course on risk modelling and decision analyses in the context of risk assessment. Main aim is to give the participant an understanding of the methods used and their uncertainties. Topics include decision analysis, probability theory, utility theory, Monte-Carlo simulations, decision trees, value of information. The course is based on the book Richard Wilson, Edmund Crouch: Risk-Benefit Analysis, Harvard University Press, 2001.

Lecturers: Docent Jouni Tuomisto, National Public Health Institute, Centre for Environmental Health Risk Analysis, Dept. of Environmental Health, Kuopio

Olli Leino, National Public Health Institute, Centre for Environmental Health Risk Analysis, Dept. of Environmental Health, Kuopio

Marko Tainio, National Public Health Institute, Centre for Environmental Health Risk Analysis, Dept. of Environmental Health, Kuopio

Further information: Sari.Makkonen(at)uku.fi, Tel. +358-17-163188

Time schedule:

Date	Lecture
September 18
Medistudia, MHS1
9.15-10.00	Introduction to course and distribution of homework
10.15-11.00	Perspective on risk (definition of risk measures, system boundaries)
11.15-12.00	History of risk research (Red book approach, Nuclear safety)
September 19
Medistudia, MHS1
9.15-10.00	Risk management
10.15-11.00	Exposure assessment
11.15-12.00	Dose-response assessment, Risk assessment tools (NOAEL, benchmark, CSF, RfD)
September 20
Medistudia, MR10
9.15-10.00	Probability theory [frequentist and subjective (Bayesian) approach]
10.15-11.00	Monte Carlo simulation and other tools
11.15-12.00	Decision theory (utility, decision tree, utilitarian, egalitarian and other decision rules)
September 21
Medistudia, MHS1
9.15-10.00	Graphical representations of risk (impact pathway, event tree, mind map, pyrkilo, flow chart)
10.15-11.00	Perception of risks (trust, attributes of risk, expert vs. layman perception)
11.15-12.00	Models in risk assessment (pharmacokinetic, atmospheric)
September 21
Canthia, MC3
9.15-12.00	Computer work in a computer classroom. Finishing and presenting homework. Using Wiki and Pyrkilo.